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          美元指数 走强涨破 只是意外 听听分析师怎么说_www.forex21.cn

          时间:2018/4/25 22:37:12 点击:

            核心提示: According to the foreign exchange network market center data, the deadline for the deadline for Be...


          According to the foreign exchange network market center data, the deadline for the deadline for Beijing at 20:46 on Wednesday, the dollar index rose by 0.5%, reported 91.22, continued to brush the new high since January 12th this year, the euro against US dollar exchange rate fell by 0.5%, report 1.2172, refresh the new low since March 1st. But the best currency for analysts is it!

          Although no one expects policymakers to announce higher interest rates at the ECB meeting on Thursday (April 26th), the conditions for the euro's recovery have matured for the most part of the last 3 months.

          Opponents like to point out the purchasing managers' index (PMI), which shows that the slowdown in manufacturing in the euro zone and the slowdown in economic growth are the reasons for the failure of the euro to achieve a significant increase in the past year. But the fact is that the downside risks of the euro zone economy are smaller than the downside risks of the US economy. The euro area's inflation rate is only 1.3%, though 2.7% over the same period last year. Despite the decline in the PMI index in recent months, they remained at a high level after 57 months of large-scale expansion as of March.

          In contrast, the April ISM manufacturing index in the United States faced significant downside risks following a sharp fall in the Empire Manufacturing Index expected series. The series experienced a second - month decline in its history, larger than any month during the financial crisis, or the stock market suffered heavy damage during the great depression. Although the dollar became one of the few unrelated assets when inflation risk triggered a cross market sell-off in February, the dollar has been difficult to surpass key technical indicators.

          Badly! The US dollar index continued to record a record increase of over 0.5%. Analysts are most optimistic about it.

          Even though the stock market fell on Tuesday, the dollar was under pressure.  Moreover, even if the Federal Reserve speed up the pace of raising interest rates and the European Central Bank will continue to implement loose monetary policy, the US dollar will also have more room to fall. The US dollar may face pressure from rising US Treasury bonds. In addition, the economic and labor market has been running at almost a peak, and there is also a risk of economic slowdown. In addition, the US stock market is no longer supported by the great optimism generated by the one-off revaluation transaction in 2017.

          During the period from July 2012 to September 2014, the Federal Reserve watched the ECB rapidly reduce its balance sheet, making the ECB almost a stimulus to its economy. Now, the European Central Bank is watching the impact of the Fed's moves. The ECB's best policy is to further sink the fed into the mire of balance sheet reduction and monetary tightening, because the mire may be deeper than it looks.

          If higher interest rates slow the growth of the US economy, any short-term dollar appreciation could turn into an economic recession. This means that in the short term, there is no need to look down on the euro. After all, the euro rose from a low of 1.04 at the beginning of 2017 to about 1.20 at the end of 2017, although the Fed was raising interest rates in 2017 and began to cut down balance sheet assets. Considering the long-term trend of the euro and the US dollar, the strength of the US dollar is an exception, not a rule. The euro seems to be more likely to rise from the recent 1.22 to 1.30, while the US dollar index is more likely to fall from the current 91.103 to the mid 80s.

          Although the ECB is likely to maintain interest rates unchanged this week, the euro is unlikely to fall below the critical level of 1.16 against the US dollar. The European Central Bank may be content to stand by and let the Fed embark on a painful path on the issue of monetary tightening.





            相比之下,继帝国制造业指数(Empire Manufacturing Index)预期系列大幅下跌后,美国4月ISM制造业指数面临着重大的下行风险。该系列经历了其历史上第二大的一个月跌幅,比金融危机期间的任何一个月跌幅都要大,或者股市在大萧条期间遭受重创。尽管在2月份通胀风险引发跨市场抛售时,美元成为为数不多的不相关资产之一,但美元一直难以超越关键的技术指标。

          厉害了!美元指数继续刷新纪录涨超0.5%  分析师最看好的是它!








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